The New York Times has an interesting op-ed piece about bringing hope, confidence — and buyers — back to the US real estate market. The author’s premise is pretty simple: To get home buyers back in the real estate market, it’s not enough to focus on lower prices, because a lot of potential home buyers are simply too scared to buy anything right now. And if they’re not scared, then they’re being very clever — that is, they expect prices to keep decreasing, so they’ll just keep on waiting to get the absolutely lowest price. A good deal is no longer good enough. Many buyers want the very best, cheapest option. After all, it is a buyer’s market.

The result is inertia fueled by a hypercautious speculation and fear, which would spell disaster for large sectors of the economy if left unchecked.

The solution therefore requires returning hope and confidence to real estate buyers. We need to convince them to suspend disbelief despite all they’ve been reading about credit crunches, foreclosures, sub-prime bla bla bla . . . The media is selling papers by selling fear, but it’s clear that a moribund real estate market is not in any country’s mid-term interests.

So the big question is: How do you return confidence to home buyers back in the context of carnage and despair that define current real estate market conditions not just in Spain but in many countries throughout the world?

The author suggests that the best measure would be to give potential buyers rebates to incentivize them to buy property - in this case, the author suggests a 5% tax rebate of up to $25,000.

And he argues that it should be done after the real estate market after the market has sufficiently corrected itself, which the author estimates should be between August to December 2008. Under this approach, the rebate would last for 12 months.

I’m not sure a rebate of €25,000 would be sufficient in the US market, but it might work in Spain, if done in conjunction with other measures. In Spain, the problem is two-fold:

• Buyers need to begin to have faith that now is the right time to buy — that they shouldn’t feel stupid for not waiting a little bit longer, and
• Banks need to be willing to lend people the money to buy property at an affordable price.

It’s clear that the first problem won’t be solved until the second one is addressed. In the last few months of my real estate business, one of the most frustrating experiences was finally getting an interested buyer only to have the bank reject the application or request a double guarantee or some other very stringent requirement that sent the buyer running back to live with Mommy and Daddy.

That being said, the sub-prime crisis is sufficiently scary to make me empathize with banks’ unwillingness to extend credit to risky applicants. Banks really shouldn’t be lending money to people whose only asset is the dream of being a property owner. If you don’t have a steady job, assets or any sort of guarantor, maybe you really don’t need to be a home owner.For me, the essence of the current quandary is stemming the circle of fear. Banks have lost confidence in businesses and in home buyers, and home buyers have lost confidence in ever being able to afford a decent home. And it seems that in large part, it’ll be up to normal economic forces and the government to instill confidence in both parties.

What do you think? Should the Spanish government offer similar incentives to home buyers to get them back? At which point should the rebate be offered? Will it make any difference, or are more fundamental changes in the Spanish real estate market required? If so, what might they be? And in light of the current credit crunch, what, if anything, should the Spanish government do to convince banks to support the real estate industry and potential home buyers, without going in the direction of the sub-prime mortgage debacle?